The Zigmont Report (Recap for 5/16/19)


Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

Continuation.  Bulls kept the party going today because of….reasons.  The press is claiming good economic numbers as well as good earnings reports from Cisco and Walmart.  Hmmm.  CSCO announced last night and WMT announced at 7 AM.  Economic news wasn’t so material but what did come out, came out at 8:30 AM.

Premarket futures indicated an 11-ish handle pop on the open, which was what we saw.  Then stocks rallied strongly until 10 AM and further still, but less strongly, until lunch…topping out with the S&P up 42 handles!

I’m not believing that earnings-and-economic-data story.

We rallied on improved sentiment and I’m guessing we’ve got a lot of momentum-chasing going on.  The dip-buyers think it’s the same-old, same-old and the bears fear the exact same thing.

I don’t think there’s much more upside.  There are risks out and about the marketplace.  Trade with China is the most prominent example but not the only one worth discounting.  Multiple expansion from here seems much less likely than compression.

That’s probably a good medium term prediction.  Day-to-day, the market remains manic.  Right now, investors are happy again.

How happy?

Too happy.

See you tomorrow.

The Zigmont Report (Recap for 5/16/19)